you're assuming that people who voted for john leech because they knew him locally from his work as a lib dem councillor will turn away from him next time, and that he will not garner any new support on such grounds. I doubt that. He still puts the work in at ground level thar built his personal support in the 1st place, and in any case the votes in the local elections show Lib Dem support holding up at that level. Dave, don't be fooled by the bias on this website. Locally, John Leech has a big fund of personal popularity. It was an important factor at the last election, and still is. It's something Keith Bradley never really understood the mechanics of. Why do you think John got the biggest swing in UK? Personal popularity, that's why.
And then, more importantly, on a national level, you're assuming that Labour will claw back some of the support it lost.
Again, there is no evidence for that.
Maybe Gordon Brown will reverse the losses. But it may be too late for him to do that , or he may find himself tarred with the same brush, having been intimately connected with those policies which cost Labour votes last time.
Admittedly, he will have a honeymoon period of some sort,but he will have great difficulty ditching the unpopular policies of Blair's premiership without being wide open to charges of hypocrisy.
He'll also have to have yet another Home Secretary, a new health minister, a new chancellor, and a new deputy PM to cope with. It's how well those people do which will ultimately decide who wins Withington next time round.
Round here things like Iraq and the health service will continue to cost votes. And don't also forget that interest rates are creeping up and there's alot of young voters round here who have borrowed up to the hilt on mortgages and who are beginning to struggle. For that, Gordon Brown carries the can.
I'd put money on John holding the seat and increasing his margin if I were gambler. The only real problem he has is the lib dems' apparently comatose leader, which may cost them support nationally . May we live in interesting times, as they say in China.
